Poll: New Yorkers Back Taxing the Rich, Changing Bail Reform, but Hochul and Legislature Are Divided

A new poll from Siena College finds that New Yorkers back two major state budget proposals. One would increase taxes on the wealthy, and the other would give judges more discretion to set bail for those accused of serious crimes. But Governor Kathy Hochul and the legislature are far apart on the two proposals, setting up an intense week as the April 1 budget deadline looms.

Siena’s Steve Greenberg says two budget proposals have widespread bipartisan support. One is to raise income taxes on New Yorkers making over $5 million dollars a year. More than three quarters of those surveyed support it. 

“It has support from 83% of Democrats, 74% of independents and 64% of Republicans,” Greenberg said. “ That's a proposal the Governor did not include it in her budget”. 

In fact, Hochul opposes income tax increases. A political action committee partly financed by billionaire Mike Bloomberg is running numerous television ads highlighting her stance. 

“Governor Hochul kept her word to not raise income taxes,” the narrator says in the ad.  

But both houses of the Legislature, led by Democrats, include in their budgets?? higher income tax brackets for those making more than $5 million.  

Michael Kink with the Strong Economy for All coalition, which advocates raising taxes on the wealthy, says the poll results are not a surprise to him. 

“This is not necessarily a left-wing issue,” Kink said. “It’s something that’s backed by a huge majority of New Yorkers regardless of their political perspective.” 

He says what he does find puzzling, though, is Hochul’s position against a popular initiative. 

“I really don’t understand why Governor Hochul would want to back unpopular policies that hurt the economy,” he said.

Opponents of raising taxes on the rich, including Hochul, say it will just drive the wealthy to leave New York. 

The watchdog group Citizens Budget Commission says the tax increase debate can be avoided by cutting spending. The group’s Patrick Orecki says the state has increased spending at a higher rate over the past three years than it did for the previous decade. Between fiscal years 2022 and 2023, the increase was more than 12%.  

“It’s really new spending across the board,” said Orecki who said the biggest increases are in aid to public schools and Medicaid, the government funded health care program.  

Orecki says taking spending down to a 2% rate of growth per year, as occurred during the decade just before the pandemic, would eliminate future deficits and decrease the need for more taxes of any kind. 

The other proposal receiving broad backing is Hochul’s plan to further alter the state’s bail reform laws, which ended many forms of cash bail. Hochul wants to give judges more discretion to set bail when defendants are accused of serious crimes. Greenberg says Republicans, independents and Democrats all support that. 

“This may surprise some people,” Greenberg said. “ It's got support from 69% of Republicans, 71% of independents and 76% of Democrats. So, by a small margin, Democrats support that proposal even more than Republicans do.” 

Democrats in the Senate and the Assembly did not include the bail reform changes in their budget plans. Progressive Democrats in both houses are against the measure, saying bail reform is being scapegoated for the rise in crime in recent years.  

Just 20% of those surveyed oppose Hochul’s proposed changes. 

The two issues, along with differences between the governor and Legislature over affordable housing plans, tenant protections, and adding more charter schools, all need to be resolved before the budget is settled. It’s due at the end of the week, but Hochul and lawmakers have already said they are ready to hold up the spending plan to get what they want.