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COVID-19 in New York State

Gov. Andrew Cuomo is predicting that New York will not see a second economic shutdown due to the COVID-19 pandemic. He also offered some tongue in cheek projections about another event, the final games of the NFL season and the fate of the Buffalo Bills.

The governor spent the week backing away from statements on Monday, where he warned that the state was headed for a second shut down, similar to the one last spring, to keep the coronavirus from spreading further.

The governor now says, even with the expected increase in social gatherings surrounding during the upcoming holidays, he does not think more economic restrictions will be necessary. He says he thinks people in the state learned something from the post-Thanksgiving surge in the infection rate, and will be careful this time around.

“I believe we can avoid a shutdown,” Cuomo said. “I think you’ll see a smarter response through the holidays.”

The governor’s belief is in contrast to New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio, who has said he believes trends who there will need to be another shut down in January, when the full effect of virus transmission during holiday gatherings are felt.

New York State is also using new metrics to measure whether a lock down is warranted. Earlier in the fall, the governor and his health officials attempted to designate regions with spiking rates of COVID as micro cluster hot zones, with corresponding restrictions on public gatherings and businesses.

But with the state’s average positivity rate for the virus now above 5%, for the past several days, that model would have led to a statewide shutdown.

The state is instead making its decisions based on hospital capacity. The new rules say that when a region’s hospital beds are projected to be 85% full within three weeks’ time, then the region would have to shut down. Cuomo says as of today, no hospitals in any part of the state believe that will happen, meaning a shut down can be avoided until at least early January.

“No hospital in the state believes that they are going to hit 85% by January 8,” Cuomo said. “That’s good news.”

More than six thousand New Yorkers are in the hospital with COVID-19, more than 1000 in intensive care units. 120 people died of the disease on Thursday.

In a statement, Ken Raske, President of the Greater New York Hospital Association, sides with Cuomo. Raske says if it appears that public health would be compromised by keeping things open, then “we would be the first to call for a shutdown of the economy," Raske says. But, he says “we are not at that point, nor do we see that point in the foreseeable future/"

Cuomo, an avid football fan, joked with reporters that he is placing two bets on events in the upcoming weeks.

“I will bet you the Bills make the play off,” Cuomo said. “And I would wager New York does not shut down.”

But the governor, despite his optimism on avoiding a shut down, says he’s not yet ready to allow Buffalo Bills fans back into the stadium to watch their team in the playoffs, should they win a slot.

He says any decision would depend on the rate of the virus in Western New York. The Buffalo region had the highest rate of infection of anywhere in the state this fall, but the rate has been declining, and virus numbers in the Syracuse and Rochester areas now surpass the region.

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